The Game of the Industry Chain Under the Interweaving of PV Policy Dividends and Cost Pressure [SMM Analysis]

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SMM March 28 news:

PV aluminum extrusion:This week, the demand for PV frame continued to grow steadily. Although the industry processing fee remained in the low range, the downstream module producers accelerated their restocking demand under the strong stimulus of the PV on-grid tariff policy adjustment. Top-tier enterprises basically maintained full capacity operation. According to the SMM survey, a module producer tendered yesterday, and the current processing fee has broken through the 2,400 yuan/mt integer mark. Coupled with the financial pressure of the 6+6 months payment structure, midstream enterprises in the industry chain generally reported increased operational pressure.

Raw material prices:During the period (March 24, 2025 - March 28, 2025), the average spot price of aluminum shifted upward. The weekly average price of SMM A00 was 20,684 yuan/mt, down 0.37% from the previous week. Overall, the macro front was mixed, with domestic favorable macro conditions unchanged, while overseas uncertainties remained strong, leading some funds to take a risk-averse stance. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand showed growth trends. As the peak consumption season approached, most sectors saw an increase in order volume and operating rate, coupled with sustained demand for aluminum ingot social inventory. The upward momentum of aluminum prices still exists. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract will operate near 20,500-21,000 yuan/mt next week, while LME aluminum will operate at $2,600-2,680/mt.

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